The political landscape in Canada is shifting rapidly, and conservatives must adapt to remain competitive. However, they seem unable to do so. As the country faces major challenges, their reliance on rage farming and wedge issues is losing relevance for many voters. Their vision, which largely focuses on scaling back government to its bare essentials, is ill-suited to the complexities of the current moment. If Trump continues on his current path, both Canadians and Canadian workers will likely require more government support, not less. Notably, PP’s primary economic proposal amid these difficulties is to push for pipeline projects that no longer exist. That said, the political climate remains fluid, and while Carney has his own vulnerabilities, the days when conservatives could realistically hope to win 200+ seats seem to be over.
On another note, I’m curious about your thoughts on Trudeau’s speech yesterday. Personally, I think it’s a shame we haven’t seen this more combative version of him in months—if not years. While it may not have reversed voter fatigue with the Liberal government, it would have put the party in a stronger position.
I think I know. Unfortunately the marital problems took place at the same time. Trying to rescue your marriage and fending off these attacks at the same time; we are all human and something had to give. He probably thought he could do both at the same time and unfortunately none of his advisors told him (or could convince him) otherwise.
The personal attacks against Trudeau were relentless and the lowest we’ve witnessed in Canadian politics ever. The ridiculous memes on social media, outright lies, it was pretty disgusting. How do you stand up to that, defend yourself without stooping to the same rhetoric? He’s never played that game with the opposition. Heck, he hasn’t even called Trump wacko, lol. Just diplomatically quoted the WSJ who said tariffs were a dumb thing to do. He’ll make a great ambassador for Canada in the future.
Agreed; I continue to marvel at the lack of imagination men in particular seem to have when it comes to recognizing how SUCH relentless vitriol would affect ANYONE, progressive men included.
I keep pointing out that it's a form of "subliminal advertising," which we now know works, but were all surprised to find out how well, but there are clearly varying depths of self-awareness....
Also, Trudeau is simply a classy and naturally elegant guy, was "well brought up" and is to the manor born so to speak, which means he has impeccable manners.
However, a lot of guy guys seem to deem this "effeminate," along with his general demeanor i.e. the way he stands and holds his hands. This aligns with what amounts to the actually problematic but persistent limitations placed on men generally when it comes to emotions, starting with the required "low-drama narrative" at all times.
Unfortunately for women, and for all of us, this speaks to ingrained notions of a "leader" basically having to be a man, hence Kamala losing out in what was described as a battle between the "bros and the hos." Bad boy behaviour is having a moment of late, and it's not pretty.
So no surprise that Trudeau being a drama teacher was a major strike against him, especially here in the macho west, particularly in "Alberduh."
If Trudeau supporters had wanted to play the “trash the competition” game, they could have listed Poilievre’s work experience as paperboy, then Reform Party membership salesman, then lifetime MP and dubious CPC leader. But we won’t go there…
JT has presented himself as a professional much more so than either Donald or PP. We do need more politicians lifting up the professionalism, not looking for the bottom.
The anti-Trudeau hate was indeed some of the worst inflammatory personalization that we have seen in Canadian politics. Trudeau, by being his father's son with all the relevant expectations attached, has been both over-hyped and over-hated as a politician.
But Trudeau needlessly hurt his own brand by his inconsistency. He branded himself as an empath but became decreasingly apologetic for his mistakes as his tenure went on. Harper never apologized for anything and neither does Poilievre, but that's what fans of insufferable patriarchs actually want. Being both the feminist and the alpha male at the same time simply does not play well.
If Carney doesn’t win, I fear that Canada is screwed. And that’s a totally rational comment. My voting for him as leader was also from a purely rational and not emotional stance. This is a fight that’s so important that we all have to be clear minded and vote for the good of Canada.
If the Liberals in my circle are an indication, Carney will win handily. The ranked ballots on average have Carney first, Gould second…
Poilievre has a Trump and Musk problem that is going to haunt him big time given there are so many videos and interviews out there as a record, plus (per @Tparkin) Poilievre has to contend with the one-third of his supporters who LIKE Trump (and Musk).
Voter enthusiasm is going to play a major role in the outcome of the next election, and that will propel the Liberals to wins in “close” ridings vs the Cons (and in Quebec especially).
What is not talked about often is the vote distribution. The Conservatives are leading 2 to 1 in the prairies. The Liberals aren't winning anywhere in a landslide. So, the national polling numbers are distorted. Remember that the Conservatives had a higher percentage of the vote in 2021. This means the Liberals are better positioned to squeak out victories in the suburbs of Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal where elections are won and lost.
I remain convinced that the Trump effect is infinitely stronger than the effect of Trudeau resigning. Of course it is impossible to tell, but the fight with Trump gives people something to vote for. Doug Ford recognized this instantly and capitalized on the opportunity. I would love to see a poll asking:
If you had to a choice between Carney taking over from Trudeau now or Trudeau continuing on till the next election and then handing over the leadership to Carney, what would you choose?
I think a real potential wildcard is Trump and/or Elon Musk directly talking about election in some way. Best case for the Tories is they don't say a word. I don't think PP would know how to grapple with say Elon endorsing him. On the flipside Elon or Trump explicitly not endorsing may dampen the CPC base enthusiasm and/or risk the CPC bleeding votes to right wing protest parties.
The Conservatives are definitely scared shitless that Carney will win the leadership and then the election. When was the last time we saw ads from a political party shouting down a mere candidate for leadership.
The Conservatives have had nothing to offer for years. Their big complaint was Trudeau. But now they can’t complain about Trudeau, so they are piling it on Carney, who isn’t even the leader yet.
There’s something seriously wrong here. Their negative ads will not get them anywhere because they have absolutely nothing to offer Canadians.
The federal conservatives have had nothing to offer Canadians since Mulroney led the original party to its destruction. Since then it has been a regional rump party.
This election is and rightly should be a referendum on Canada's relationship with the United States, that's an election Carney can win, but Pierre? Short of flipping the script and trying to run as a war time unity candidate, it's going to be slim majority/minority territory. Without Trudeau as a foil PP is a terrible candidate.
I can't help but wonder if JT shouldn't have stepped down earlier. I personally thought after "winning" a minority government he should have been looking for his replacement.
Now I'll give him credit, I like JT more now than I did before. I put my vote for O'Tool but I will not vote for PP.
The political landscape in Canada is shifting rapidly, and conservatives must adapt to remain competitive. However, they seem unable to do so. As the country faces major challenges, their reliance on rage farming and wedge issues is losing relevance for many voters. Their vision, which largely focuses on scaling back government to its bare essentials, is ill-suited to the complexities of the current moment. If Trump continues on his current path, both Canadians and Canadian workers will likely require more government support, not less. Notably, PP’s primary economic proposal amid these difficulties is to push for pipeline projects that no longer exist. That said, the political climate remains fluid, and while Carney has his own vulnerabilities, the days when conservatives could realistically hope to win 200+ seats seem to be over.
On another note, I’m curious about your thoughts on Trudeau’s speech yesterday. Personally, I think it’s a shame we haven’t seen this more combative version of him in months—if not years. While it may not have reversed voter fatigue with the Liberal government, it would have put the party in a stronger position.
If Trudeau had faced his domestic opponents with the same energy he’s standing up to Trump with, he’d be cruising to a commanding majority right now
I have no idea why he accepted years of being a domestic punching bag
I think I know. Unfortunately the marital problems took place at the same time. Trying to rescue your marriage and fending off these attacks at the same time; we are all human and something had to give. He probably thought he could do both at the same time and unfortunately none of his advisors told him (or could convince him) otherwise.
The personal attacks against Trudeau were relentless and the lowest we’ve witnessed in Canadian politics ever. The ridiculous memes on social media, outright lies, it was pretty disgusting. How do you stand up to that, defend yourself without stooping to the same rhetoric? He’s never played that game with the opposition. Heck, he hasn’t even called Trump wacko, lol. Just diplomatically quoted the WSJ who said tariffs were a dumb thing to do. He’ll make a great ambassador for Canada in the future.
Agreed; I continue to marvel at the lack of imagination men in particular seem to have when it comes to recognizing how SUCH relentless vitriol would affect ANYONE, progressive men included.
I keep pointing out that it's a form of "subliminal advertising," which we now know works, but were all surprised to find out how well, but there are clearly varying depths of self-awareness....
Also, Trudeau is simply a classy and naturally elegant guy, was "well brought up" and is to the manor born so to speak, which means he has impeccable manners.
However, a lot of guy guys seem to deem this "effeminate," along with his general demeanor i.e. the way he stands and holds his hands. This aligns with what amounts to the actually problematic but persistent limitations placed on men generally when it comes to emotions, starting with the required "low-drama narrative" at all times.
Unfortunately for women, and for all of us, this speaks to ingrained notions of a "leader" basically having to be a man, hence Kamala losing out in what was described as a battle between the "bros and the hos." Bad boy behaviour is having a moment of late, and it's not pretty.
So no surprise that Trudeau being a drama teacher was a major strike against him, especially here in the macho west, particularly in "Alberduh."
If Trudeau supporters had wanted to play the “trash the competition” game, they could have listed Poilievre’s work experience as paperboy, then Reform Party membership salesman, then lifetime MP and dubious CPC leader. But we won’t go there…
JT has presented himself as a professional much more so than either Donald or PP. We do need more politicians lifting up the professionalism, not looking for the bottom.
The anti-Trudeau hate was indeed some of the worst inflammatory personalization that we have seen in Canadian politics. Trudeau, by being his father's son with all the relevant expectations attached, has been both over-hyped and over-hated as a politician.
But Trudeau needlessly hurt his own brand by his inconsistency. He branded himself as an empath but became decreasingly apologetic for his mistakes as his tenure went on. Harper never apologized for anything and neither does Poilievre, but that's what fans of insufferable patriarchs actually want. Being both the feminist and the alpha male at the same time simply does not play well.
There is no defence against stupid people.
Carlo M. Cipolla’s Five Basic Laws of Stupidity
PP has been campaigning too long to try change his course. I think he expected he could force an election by ranting about pensions.
If Carney doesn’t win, I fear that Canada is screwed. And that’s a totally rational comment. My voting for him as leader was also from a purely rational and not emotional stance. This is a fight that’s so important that we all have to be clear minded and vote for the good of Canada.
If the Liberals in my circle are an indication, Carney will win handily. The ranked ballots on average have Carney first, Gould second…
Poilievre has a Trump and Musk problem that is going to haunt him big time given there are so many videos and interviews out there as a record, plus (per @Tparkin) Poilievre has to contend with the one-third of his supporters who LIKE Trump (and Musk).
Voter enthusiasm is going to play a major role in the outcome of the next election, and that will propel the Liberals to wins in “close” ridings vs the Cons (and in Quebec especially).
What is not talked about often is the vote distribution. The Conservatives are leading 2 to 1 in the prairies. The Liberals aren't winning anywhere in a landslide. So, the national polling numbers are distorted. Remember that the Conservatives had a higher percentage of the vote in 2021. This means the Liberals are better positioned to squeak out victories in the suburbs of Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal where elections are won and lost.
I remain convinced that the Trump effect is infinitely stronger than the effect of Trudeau resigning. Of course it is impossible to tell, but the fight with Trump gives people something to vote for. Doug Ford recognized this instantly and capitalized on the opportunity. I would love to see a poll asking:
If you had to a choice between Carney taking over from Trudeau now or Trudeau continuing on till the next election and then handing over the leadership to Carney, what would you choose?
I think the result might surprise us.
I think a real potential wildcard is Trump and/or Elon Musk directly talking about election in some way. Best case for the Tories is they don't say a word. I don't think PP would know how to grapple with say Elon endorsing him. On the flipside Elon or Trump explicitly not endorsing may dampen the CPC base enthusiasm and/or risk the CPC bleeding votes to right wing protest parties.
If the main issue is patriotism, Poilievre is toast. In Atlantic Canada, dislike for Trudeau already feels like a distant memory.
The Conservatives are definitely scared shitless that Carney will win the leadership and then the election. When was the last time we saw ads from a political party shouting down a mere candidate for leadership.
The Conservatives have had nothing to offer for years. Their big complaint was Trudeau. But now they can’t complain about Trudeau, so they are piling it on Carney, who isn’t even the leader yet.
There’s something seriously wrong here. Their negative ads will not get them anywhere because they have absolutely nothing to offer Canadians.
The federal conservatives have had nothing to offer Canadians since Mulroney led the original party to its destruction. Since then it has been a regional rump party.
This election is and rightly should be a referendum on Canada's relationship with the United States, that's an election Carney can win, but Pierre? Short of flipping the script and trying to run as a war time unity candidate, it's going to be slim majority/minority territory. Without Trudeau as a foil PP is a terrible candidate.
https://substack.com/@franann61/note/c-98364999?utm_medium=ios
When Trump backs CPC . It’s one more vote for Carney.
I can't help but wonder if JT shouldn't have stepped down earlier. I personally thought after "winning" a minority government he should have been looking for his replacement.
Now I'll give him credit, I like JT more now than I did before. I put my vote for O'Tool but I will not vote for PP.