“The other factor in a byelection is enthusiasm, and as much as I defend this government it’s clear that it’s hard to get even loyal defenders of this government enthused by it”
This is a factor that leaves me baffled by the persistent Liberal refusal to engage with the current national mood. I’ve worked campaigns. When the campaign staff start saying the can’t get volunteers who are eager to work the phones, that no one is excited to knock on doors (well, no one is ever excited to knock on doors), that sort of news travels up the party chain fast and direct.
I don’t care what sort of bubble the Liberal leadership exists in, there’s no way they can be unaware of how badly even their own base is reacting to their policies. But is there any sign? No
I don’t think the issue is policies. Most recent policies enacted by the Liberals poll quite well. I think it has more to do with style. The public is in combative mood, Poilievre and his team are ready to deliver on that topic. For whatever reason the Liberals are not prepared to drop the gloves and meet the public where it is at.
And that is just not true. There are several options for doctors to become permanent resident in Canada in an accelerated fashion. It works a little different than the caregiver program, but if a qualified MD wants to come to Canada PR is pretty much guaranteed.
And you call them nannies, I call them caregivers, mostly to elderly people (allowing them to grow old in their own home and reduce the LTC burden).
Nonsense post. The people who hire nannies are happy about it and nannies have long been horribly exploited and this is a long time coming.
As for doctors, they require more screening and the government is making efforts but this isn't Poilievre's red seal trade program where you just slap an approved sticker on somebody and call it done. Poilievre doesn't even believe in medical science or regulations for civil engineers. He wants to do away with the regulatory bodies overseeing important occupations that can mean the difference between life and death. He's an idiot.
The incumbent always has a hard time but voting for Poilievre because one is bored by or sick of the incumbent is like cutting off your nose to spite your face. Poilievre is an autocrat who has never valued democracy or working people.
The "national mood" seems to be manufactured in part by a massive Tory negative advertising campaign and Pierre's incessant Trump-style rallies that I notice seem to draw the same demographic. Old, white people who for some reason don't remember Harper wanting to deny them their pensions at 65. It's true that inflation (not Trudeau's fault, despite what the conservatives claim) is causing hardship ut the trajectory of rampant home price inflation and other forms of greed was well underway long before inflation ticked up because of unrealistically low interest rates that economists are saying today are not sustainable or realistic. Poilievre has already said he plans austerity and only core funding plans. Roads and the military will be maintained he has said. If that's the case, the Canadian public will be even worse off than they are right now. People who vote for conservatives get Doug Ford, Scott Moe, and Danielle Smith. Awful, corrupt premiers. Poilievre will be even worse.
If I lived there, I would skip my muskoka trip to enthusiastically vote against the PoiLIEvre Team. I don’t care how useless the Trudeau team, is, at least they are not a threat to our democracy.
I am not so sure. By-elections are hard to predict. In the Durham by-election about 60% of the Liberal voters stayed home compared the 2021 elections. The Conservatives lost only 30% of their voters due to the by-election lower turn-out. If the same would happen in Toronto, the Liberals would still win with 20,000 to 17,500. Not a comfortable win by any means, of course.
More interesting than the end result is how much the Trudeau and other top Liberals will invest in keeping the seat. Does Trudeau campaign with the candidate or not? Do the other Toronto area MPs show up? I suspect they will (and they should).
The same question applies to Poilievre. Do the Conservatives think that his presence is helpful with Toronto voters or not? I am not so sure that his style plays well in this riding, it is going to be interesting to see what their calculation is.
This is how I see the next federal election playing out: by August 2024, due to President Biden's increasing cognitive decline and his administration's incompetence, the polls predict a Trump victory. Justin calls an election due to "the imminent threat against democracy south of the border". Canada will need a "progressive" leader to stand up to the Americans. Anybody who disagrees with him will be described as "Maga". We get another hung parliament, with the Conservatives having the most seats. The Liberals form a coalition with the Bloc (the NDP have lost all of their seats) and try to form a government. The Bloc demand all sorts of special concessions for Quebec.
I have no idea what this means since Jamil Jivani was parachuted in to Durham - he doesn't live there - because he had every chance of winning that seat. He ended up winning with 11% of the electorate because so few showed up but there was never a chance he'd lose it. O'Toole didn't even campaign for the dirtbag and he still won O'Toole's old seat.
“The other factor in a byelection is enthusiasm, and as much as I defend this government it’s clear that it’s hard to get even loyal defenders of this government enthused by it”
This is a factor that leaves me baffled by the persistent Liberal refusal to engage with the current national mood. I’ve worked campaigns. When the campaign staff start saying the can’t get volunteers who are eager to work the phones, that no one is excited to knock on doors (well, no one is ever excited to knock on doors), that sort of news travels up the party chain fast and direct.
I don’t care what sort of bubble the Liberal leadership exists in, there’s no way they can be unaware of how badly even their own base is reacting to their policies. But is there any sign? No
I don’t think the issue is policies. Most recent policies enacted by the Liberals poll quite well. I think it has more to do with style. The public is in combative mood, Poilievre and his team are ready to deliver on that topic. For whatever reason the Liberals are not prepared to drop the gloves and meet the public where it is at.
The government just proudly announced a program to give instant permanent residency to nannies. We don’t even offer that to doctors.
They are fundamentally out of touch with the mood of the country
And that is just not true. There are several options for doctors to become permanent resident in Canada in an accelerated fashion. It works a little different than the caregiver program, but if a qualified MD wants to come to Canada PR is pretty much guaranteed.
And you call them nannies, I call them caregivers, mostly to elderly people (allowing them to grow old in their own home and reduce the LTC burden).
Nonsense post. The people who hire nannies are happy about it and nannies have long been horribly exploited and this is a long time coming.
As for doctors, they require more screening and the government is making efforts but this isn't Poilievre's red seal trade program where you just slap an approved sticker on somebody and call it done. Poilievre doesn't even believe in medical science or regulations for civil engineers. He wants to do away with the regulatory bodies overseeing important occupations that can mean the difference between life and death. He's an idiot.
The incumbent always has a hard time but voting for Poilievre because one is bored by or sick of the incumbent is like cutting off your nose to spite your face. Poilievre is an autocrat who has never valued democracy or working people.
Good thing J Trudeau came from a hard scrabble working class family. He gets it.
The "national mood" seems to be manufactured in part by a massive Tory negative advertising campaign and Pierre's incessant Trump-style rallies that I notice seem to draw the same demographic. Old, white people who for some reason don't remember Harper wanting to deny them their pensions at 65. It's true that inflation (not Trudeau's fault, despite what the conservatives claim) is causing hardship ut the trajectory of rampant home price inflation and other forms of greed was well underway long before inflation ticked up because of unrealistically low interest rates that economists are saying today are not sustainable or realistic. Poilievre has already said he plans austerity and only core funding plans. Roads and the military will be maintained he has said. If that's the case, the Canadian public will be even worse off than they are right now. People who vote for conservatives get Doug Ford, Scott Moe, and Danielle Smith. Awful, corrupt premiers. Poilievre will be even worse.
If I lived there, I would skip my muskoka trip to enthusiastically vote against the PoiLIEvre Team. I don’t care how useless the Trudeau team, is, at least they are not a threat to our democracy.
My sentiments exactly. I don't vote with my heart or my emotions. I vote with my brain and Poilievre is dangerous.
Muskoka trips are overrated. I’m staying home to vote.
I am not so sure. By-elections are hard to predict. In the Durham by-election about 60% of the Liberal voters stayed home compared the 2021 elections. The Conservatives lost only 30% of their voters due to the by-election lower turn-out. If the same would happen in Toronto, the Liberals would still win with 20,000 to 17,500. Not a comfortable win by any means, of course.
More interesting than the end result is how much the Trudeau and other top Liberals will invest in keeping the seat. Does Trudeau campaign with the candidate or not? Do the other Toronto area MPs show up? I suspect they will (and they should).
The same question applies to Poilievre. Do the Conservatives think that his presence is helpful with Toronto voters or not? I am not so sure that his style plays well in this riding, it is going to be interesting to see what their calculation is.
Is Trump not in cognitive decline? What about Jan 6? Were those the actions of a man of full competence? I don’t think so.
This is how I see the next federal election playing out: by August 2024, due to President Biden's increasing cognitive decline and his administration's incompetence, the polls predict a Trump victory. Justin calls an election due to "the imminent threat against democracy south of the border". Canada will need a "progressive" leader to stand up to the Americans. Anybody who disagrees with him will be described as "Maga". We get another hung parliament, with the Conservatives having the most seats. The Liberals form a coalition with the Bloc (the NDP have lost all of their seats) and try to form a government. The Bloc demand all sorts of special concessions for Quebec.
"the Durham byelection swing" ????
I have no idea what this means since Jamil Jivani was parachuted in to Durham - he doesn't live there - because he had every chance of winning that seat. He ended up winning with 11% of the electorate because so few showed up but there was never a chance he'd lose it. O'Toole didn't even campaign for the dirtbag and he still won O'Toole's old seat.
Flip Ottawa Vanier to Cons? Haha haha
There is not a safer Liberal seat in the nation.
Many of us celebrated the unprecedented "win" of excellent NDP candidate Lyra Evans finishing second, instead of the perennial Conservative runner-up.