Trudeau, Trump, And A Clinical Path To Recovery

On Liberal Revival

One of the talking points out of Tuesday night’s result, at least north of the border, is whether or not the Liberals are helped by the result. It’s a talking point that irritates me, because I know many of the people saying Trudeau is helped by a Trump win would be saying a Kamala win would have shown that polls don’t matter and that what does matter is progressive values. She didn’t, however, and now we’re here, and we’re seeing people hoping for a miracle.

Trudeau’s deficit is down to 16% in a (fielded pre-Tuesday, released after) Leger poll this week. Leger has shown the beginnings of a recovery before, only for the momentum to stall or reverse, but it is Canada’s best pollster showing a (somewhat) tightening race. In theory, if the lead was ~20%, the Poilievre security clearance stuff would be worth a few points, and then maybe the election is worth a few, and you can kinda sorta see a path to this being a 12-ish point race by Christmas if everything breaks right. In theory.

The problem is, I don’t think Justin Trudeau is the right person to actualize this. I think the damage is way too far gone with Trudeau, his favourables are way too low, his unfavourables far too high, and the damage is already done. Whether it’s fair or not is separate from the fact it is done. This column was originally going to be about the political risks of the Trump election, so let’s just make this clear: Poilievre is not a fascist, he’s not Trump, and everytime you call him Trumpian or a fascist it bounces back on us. It’s a bad strategy.

What will happen when Trump gets into office is Trump will go off the deep end, and in reality Poilievre’s brand of strident but not completely batshit insane conservatism will be seen as more moderate, solely in comparison to Trump being a complete and utter crazy person. Poilievre will punch right once or twice to signal he’s not beholden to Trump and the press will eat it up, in the same way the press always do for Conservatives punching right or Liberals punching left.

But let’s not be so gloomy (for once). Let’s say that Trudeau wants to try and take advantage of the US results, wants to elevate a wedge issue that helps at home, and get the press to turn the knives on Poilievre. There is one path for him, if he wants to take it. And Susan Holt just handed it to him.

…

As part of her immediate post-victory flurry of announcements, Susan Holt repealed a regulatory order banning governmental funding of abortion services in New Brunswick outside of hospitals. Basically, Clinic 554 - closed earlier this year - is now open to be funded. This is a huge deal for reproductive freedom in New Brunswick, and it’s a great sign of the value of electing progressives at a provincial level. But it’s also an opening for Trudeau.

If he’s smart, Trudeau should be hammering out a deal immediately to immediately re-open 554 and split the costs 50/50. I’m quite sure, though it’s not like I’ve asked anyone, that Holt would take that deal, since it’d just be free money the Feds are offering. They’d essentially be offering the federal money to be able to play politics with the issue. And that’s a deal that New Brunswick would gladly take.

The value for the Federal Liberals? Announce the deal in Fredericton together, then fly back to Ottawa and put it to a vote in the Commons as soon as possible. A supplemental appropriation bill, solely to fund the Federal obligation. Rush it through debate, and get it through the House this fall. It would pass - the NDP and Bloc would absolutely pass it - and it would absolutely fuck the Conservatives.

The pro-life crowd would relish the chance to vote against it, but the Conservative front bench is much more mixed on the issue. Poilievre is on record, on camera, calling himself pro choice. Melissa Lantsman would presumably find it very hard to vote against this, as would Chong and a handful of other front benchers. It would, however, be a confidence vote (all supply bills are), so that would be a hell of a mess for them. If the frontbench votes for it, then they have dozens of MPs breaking the whip on their backbench and the party’s split. If the frontbench votes against it, then you’d risk some of your best, pro-choice frontbenchers either making fools of themselves or having to resign on principle.

Either way, Conservative MPs will split on the issue, the Ottawa press gallery will circle, and the headline will be Conservatives Divisions On Abortion, not how Pierre Poilievre wants to give every child of woman born a unicorn or whatever. If, as is likely, Poilievre votes against it, you now have a ready made TV ad that says “Poilievre votes to deny women access to abortion” that is misleading as hell and also true as fuck. It’s the kind of political wedge that Trudeau of 5 years ago would have lined up already. Whether he and his PMO still have their fastball is unclear.

What’s not unclear is that if Trudeau wants the benefits of American politics and American issues, he needs more than just hypotheticals. Clinic 554 gives him that, if he wants to take it. It is a way to turn a favoured attack line from a hypothetical to reality. Funding Clinic 554 would help women get health care they need, fuck Poilievre’s political strategy, reclaim the news agenda, and remind the country there is an actual value in actually having Liberals in elected office. He should be on the phone to Susan Holt immediately getting this done. 

Wednesday I got let go from TheLines after 3.5 years of work there. My time there was great, but now I’m looking for some freelance sports writing work. If you’re in the position to actualize that or know someone who can, please reach out.

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