Think about the level of commitment it takes to cancel a vacation and lose your deposit because you refuse to spend money in the US. Or walk right past the “now bigly reduced” strawberry display because, US. Change buying habits to Canadian/local. The evidence at retail and cross border is that Canadians are MOTIVATED.
My doorknocking experience in my little corner of NS (Sean Fraser’s riding) is that people are supportive and motivated also, with little observable drag from Sean’s “re-entry”.
Then there is my own household where my partner (who is usually nonplussed by politics) couldn’t wait to vote, and her 30 something son voted for the first time EVER. All Liberal.
I think we are going to see a 1970’s level of voter turnout that is going to result in an early night for Carney and great gnashing of teeth in many parts of the prairies.
Unscientific sample size of one and purely anecdotal: Carleton early voting site was packed today. Had to wait for almost one hour. Listening to conversations, Trump was the main topic. One guy was wearing a hat with “Canada is not for sale”. Lady at the polling table said it had been non stop since they had opened.
There is another aspect of increased turn out of early voting. People have made up their minds. They have seen enough and want to get on with things. No need to wait for costed platforms, I know who I want as prime minister going forward.
The ballot was a single sheet of paper, the size of 3 regular letter size sheets. The candidates are listed in two columns, alphabetically by last name. Finding the candidates and then folding the ballot is problematic. It takes a lot of time.
At our polling station there were two lines, on average it took a person 1 1/2 to 2 minutes to vote. So they were running at roughly 60-80 votes per hour. The station was open from 9am to 9pm, so in theory they could have something like 800 to 1000 electors on the first day. I was told the total amount of electors for the area was about 6000, so the first day of early voting could have brought in 10-15% of the eligible voters. I believe that would be quite exceptional.
approx 72,000 Eligible Voters in Carleton Federal Riding..
How many ‘appreciate or accept the Insult to their intelligence - ‘They’re Broken Canadians, Terrified & Have Lost Control Of Their Lives, Cannot Afford Groceries & need a Assault Style Semi Automatic Rifle to bag meat for their freezer & repel Predators, and appreciate their Elected Public Servant is apparently the Wealthiest Person in the Entire Riding ?
Will Poilievre get 35,000 Votes this time ? Will NDP get 8,000 ?
Imagine the ‘Upside vs Downside’ - & every tiny ‘flavour or gaff or ‘whistle blower, leak.. could TRIGGER a punishing & catastrophic Electoral Rebuff - that combined with a Liberal Majority could crush The Harper Reform ‘CPC
A ‘Safe western IDU / Reform / Trump Lite ‘Federal Riding Contestant .. ?
Where do they Parachute Pierre if he self detonates in Carleton Riding ?
I scarce believe the constituents are eager for intrusive partisanship 🦎🏴☠️🧨
Poilievre is done as a federal politician if he loses his seat. The knives will be out for him and Byrne.
If he keeps his seat, but does not manage a plurality, then he will have a leadership challenge to deal with. Again the knives are out. In theory he could follow Andrew Scheer’s approach, but I think his ego is too big for that.
I have been waiting all day for your take!I read a couple of snap polls and freaked ..got a hold of myself and said nah ,there was no performance last night that turned it up .Carney was cool,PP had tears ,Singh was interrupts alot guy and I just wanted to slap Blanchett...
Was going to vote today but very long lineup so bumping it to tomorrow. But that's probably just as much due to it being a) the first day of voting b) a holiday and c) a nice day out than anything else.
Who knows if that speaks to higher turnout overall - though I suspect Trump's nonsense has fired up a lot of infrequent voters and they'll break Liberal overall. Doesn't at all hurt that the Liberal logo/colors are the same as the flag, which has enjoyed a resurgence after being sullied by the feral trucker cosplayers.
I voted today (Ottawa Center -- none of the leaders' names are on my ballot!). No ranking the candidates, and not even vote counting scanners as we have in Ontario Provincial and Ottawa municipal elections. Pencil and paper to mark an X -- party like it's 1867.
I'm someone who watches Question Period, and even been a witness in committees, so not really the subject of this article.
I agree about the clearance question -- that is for those of us who aren't hyper-partisan and don't buy into the idea that security clearance is a gag order. It is a requirement of public service at a specific level, but even that thought isn't how some voters think (about being a parliamentarian being public service, rather than a power grab away from fellow Canadians) so I agree it wasn't great to add to the debate. Polievre was able to dog-whistle to his fake anti-establishment anti-public service Reform base with little cost.
It felt like Polievre was too focused on Alberta oil, and along with Blanchet came off as narrowly focused on specific provinces. Singh wanted to focus on provincial jurisdiction issues - jurisdictional confusion seems to be common with the NDP.
While I don’t focus on parties and their corporate-imposed leaders (I believe Westminster systems should have leaders decided by, and always accountable to, caucus members), it is still disappointing that there seems to only be one federal leader focused on Canada’s national and international issues.
Evan, turn out in Canada has been in the mid to low 60% in the past two decades. Have you had any discussions with the pollsters if there is a chance for a turn out in the high 70s or even breaking 80%?
What would this mean for all the projection models? Or are we in uncharted territory with this election if the turn-out is so radically different?
One thing the Conservatives seem to underestimate is that with Trudeau stepping aside, a lot of Canadians are ready to balance the equation …by showing up to get rid of Poilievre.
I don’t think that most Canadians see the security question as dogshit, Tom Mulcair’s incoherent opinion notwithstanding. All candidates should have a security clearance to be taken seriously.
You don't need to know who Sean Fraser is to be angry at doubled housing prices and skyrocketing rents and inflation and ready to vote. Conservatives are fired up.
In my blue riding, we are in a virtual tie, long lines Friday morning, seemed pretty cheery so ppl are thinking they’re gonna get the govt they voted for. 🤗 Huge thank you to everyone who is putting your trust in Carney.
She lost because she was a uniquely appalling candidate and an absolute travesty that the Dem establishment saw fit to run her in this mist consequential of elections……
Think about the level of commitment it takes to cancel a vacation and lose your deposit because you refuse to spend money in the US. Or walk right past the “now bigly reduced” strawberry display because, US. Change buying habits to Canadian/local. The evidence at retail and cross border is that Canadians are MOTIVATED.
My doorknocking experience in my little corner of NS (Sean Fraser’s riding) is that people are supportive and motivated also, with little observable drag from Sean’s “re-entry”.
Then there is my own household where my partner (who is usually nonplussed by politics) couldn’t wait to vote, and her 30 something son voted for the first time EVER. All Liberal.
I think we are going to see a 1970’s level of voter turnout that is going to result in an early night for Carney and great gnashing of teeth in many parts of the prairies.
But no rest until the votes are being counted!
Thank you! We voted for Canada strong ❤️🇨🇦❤️
Unscientific sample size of one and purely anecdotal: Carleton early voting site was packed today. Had to wait for almost one hour. Listening to conversations, Trump was the main topic. One guy was wearing a hat with “Canada is not for sale”. Lady at the polling table said it had been non stop since they had opened.
There is another aspect of increased turn out of early voting. People have made up their minds. They have seen enough and want to get on with things. No need to wait for costed platforms, I know who I want as prime minister going forward.
I heard that district was one of two targets of the "Longest Ballot" folks. What was that like?
The ballot was a single sheet of paper, the size of 3 regular letter size sheets. The candidates are listed in two columns, alphabetically by last name. Finding the candidates and then folding the ballot is problematic. It takes a lot of time.
At our polling station there were two lines, on average it took a person 1 1/2 to 2 minutes to vote. So they were running at roughly 60-80 votes per hour. The station was open from 9am to 9pm, so in theory they could have something like 800 to 1000 electors on the first day. I was told the total amount of electors for the area was about 6000, so the first day of early voting could have brought in 10-15% of the eligible voters. I believe that would be quite exceptional.
approx 72,000 Eligible Voters in Carleton Federal Riding..
How many ‘appreciate or accept the Insult to their intelligence - ‘They’re Broken Canadians, Terrified & Have Lost Control Of Their Lives, Cannot Afford Groceries & need a Assault Style Semi Automatic Rifle to bag meat for their freezer & repel Predators, and appreciate their Elected Public Servant is apparently the Wealthiest Person in the Entire Riding ?
I am hoping for a Carleton surprise. Bruce Fanjoy has been working very hard and seems to have connected well with the local voters.
Another unscientific piece of data, in my (quite wealthy) subdivision the yard sign race is 7-3 in favour of Bruce.
Will Poilievre get 35,000 Votes this time ? Will NDP get 8,000 ?
Imagine the ‘Upside vs Downside’ - & every tiny ‘flavour or gaff or ‘whistle blower, leak.. could TRIGGER a punishing & catastrophic Electoral Rebuff - that combined with a Liberal Majority could crush The Harper Reform ‘CPC
A ‘Safe western IDU / Reform / Trump Lite ‘Federal Riding Contestant .. ?
Where do they Parachute Pierre if he self detonates in Carleton Riding ?
I scarce believe the constituents are eager for intrusive partisanship 🦎🏴☠️🧨
Poilievre is done as a federal politician if he loses his seat. The knives will be out for him and Byrne.
If he keeps his seat, but does not manage a plurality, then he will have a leadership challenge to deal with. Again the knives are out. In theory he could follow Andrew Scheer’s approach, but I think his ego is too big for that.
If only more of the country was like Nova Scotia! 😉
I have been waiting all day for your take!I read a couple of snap polls and freaked ..got a hold of myself and said nah ,there was no performance last night that turned it up .Carney was cool,PP had tears ,Singh was interrupts alot guy and I just wanted to slap Blanchett...
A higher voter turnout is best for democracy, regardless of who wins.
Was going to vote today but very long lineup so bumping it to tomorrow. But that's probably just as much due to it being a) the first day of voting b) a holiday and c) a nice day out than anything else.
Who knows if that speaks to higher turnout overall - though I suspect Trump's nonsense has fired up a lot of infrequent voters and they'll break Liberal overall. Doesn't at all hurt that the Liberal logo/colors are the same as the flag, which has enjoyed a resurgence after being sullied by the feral trucker cosplayers.
I voted today (Ottawa Center -- none of the leaders' names are on my ballot!). No ranking the candidates, and not even vote counting scanners as we have in Ontario Provincial and Ottawa municipal elections. Pencil and paper to mark an X -- party like it's 1867.
I'm someone who watches Question Period, and even been a witness in committees, so not really the subject of this article.
I agree about the clearance question -- that is for those of us who aren't hyper-partisan and don't buy into the idea that security clearance is a gag order. It is a requirement of public service at a specific level, but even that thought isn't how some voters think (about being a parliamentarian being public service, rather than a power grab away from fellow Canadians) so I agree it wasn't great to add to the debate. Polievre was able to dog-whistle to his fake anti-establishment anti-public service Reform base with little cost.
It felt like Polievre was too focused on Alberta oil, and along with Blanchet came off as narrowly focused on specific provinces. Singh wanted to focus on provincial jurisdiction issues - jurisdictional confusion seems to be common with the NDP.
While I don’t focus on parties and their corporate-imposed leaders (I believe Westminster systems should have leaders decided by, and always accountable to, caucus members), it is still disappointing that there seems to only be one federal leader focused on Canada’s national and international issues.
Ick..
Two words that frighten a 10 year unpopular incumbent government - VOTER TURNOUT 🇨🇦 🗳️
Saw a (30 person?) lineup outside a Vancouver East early voting location this (Friday) afternoon.
Evan, turn out in Canada has been in the mid to low 60% in the past two decades. Have you had any discussions with the pollsters if there is a chance for a turn out in the high 70s or even breaking 80%?
What would this mean for all the projection models? Or are we in uncharted territory with this election if the turn-out is so radically different?
Couldn’t agree more.
One thing the Conservatives seem to underestimate is that with Trudeau stepping aside, a lot of Canadians are ready to balance the equation …by showing up to get rid of Poilievre.
I don’t think that most Canadians see the security question as dogshit, Tom Mulcair’s incoherent opinion notwithstanding. All candidates should have a security clearance to be taken seriously.
You don't need to know who Sean Fraser is to be angry at doubled housing prices and skyrocketing rents and inflation and ready to vote. Conservatives are fired up.
In my blue riding, we are in a virtual tie, long lines Friday morning, seemed pretty cheery so ppl are thinking they’re gonna get the govt they voted for. 🤗 Huge thank you to everyone who is putting your trust in Carney.
This is almost word for word what U.S. pundits said about Kamala in 2024 and they were dead wrong.
Result?
Harris lost.
Trump won.
Because those same voters turned out to punish the establishment, not defend it.
Kamala lost because too many people stayed home.
She lost because she was a uniquely appalling candidate and an absolute travesty that the Dem establishment saw fit to run her in this mist consequential of elections……