One thing I've been thinking a lot about this year is, lol wow, "Silver's Law" or whatever NS called it, I think post-Brexit/Trump: Paraphrasing, the more out of synch media coverage is from the polling, the more likely an electoral upset is, in favor of whomever media coverage undersold. And while I don't necessarily think the coverage this cycle has been *too* out of synch with what data we have, I wouldn't be *too* surprised if a version of Silver's Law proved true and Dems made out just a touch better than expected. In part, your anglophone analysis might help to explain why a positive correlation between overselling and underperforming at least sometimes appears to be the case: a very tight, if often underexamined two-way relationship between how pollsters correct their data and the social narratives all of us work within.
One thing I've been thinking a lot about this year is, lol wow, "Silver's Law" or whatever NS called it, I think post-Brexit/Trump: Paraphrasing, the more out of synch media coverage is from the polling, the more likely an electoral upset is, in favor of whomever media coverage undersold. And while I don't necessarily think the coverage this cycle has been *too* out of synch with what data we have, I wouldn't be *too* surprised if a version of Silver's Law proved true and Dems made out just a touch better than expected. In part, your anglophone analysis might help to explain why a positive correlation between overselling and underperforming at least sometimes appears to be the case: a very tight, if often underexamined two-way relationship between how pollsters correct their data and the social narratives all of us work within.