I have to wonder if this is just kind of a pause in the GFR, though. Here's why I say this: Right now, the COVID-19 pandemic *is* the name of the game. All the fallout from it - school-attendance issues, closed daycares, inconsistent service delivery, mask mandates that are more tightly followed and enforced in areas with *high* vax rates - is probably what is driving voters' behaviors. People are still in a defensive crouch and trying to find a way out, and Dem politicians aren't really providing guidance, unfortunately. See my related Twitter feed here:
Personally, I could feel a lot of the air get let out of the left-wing balloon when the CDC changed its masking guidance on what was rather flimsy data...and a bunch of Dem-run states followed suit by reinstating mask mandates. I live in Oregon. While there's not much risk of Oregon going red anytime soon, I know plenty of people in my area (about D+25) that are kinda pissed.
Hell, we even have an *outdoor* mandate for venues! That's *more* restrictive than last year...and we were at like 65% of eligible vaxxed at the time. Stupid. Anyway, *I* was pissed that it happened...and there's no way in HELL I'm voting for the Oregon GOP anytime soon...but I can see 10% of my city doing so. They're not THAT serious about the Dems.
Thing is...I don't sense that this frustration or anger is very deep. It's transitory, situational. Give people a path out of this and I'm pretty sure the summer of 2022 looks like what the summer of 2021 was supposed to be. Focus on ending the effects of COVID-19 and getting us to an endemic state and I think the Dems will be fine, mostly because people leave their defensive crouches and actually get to experience the true good Dems are doing right now. Maybe they don't hold Congress but I don't think it'll be a disaster.
In short, November 2022 is a long, long ways away.
I think that the results today are somewhat similar to the Nova Scotia election in August... since both had the challenger gaining ground in the last few polls, even though the incumbent was heavily favoured before...
Anyway, I am not too familiar with Virginia politics, but I guess it's partly a "thermostatic" effect, and also a general backlash towards many people see (rightly or not) as the excesses of the left-wing.
I am not sure how much to interpolate from the US elections to other countries one's, but I guess it makes me more bullish on the conservatives in Canada, and also possibly making it more likely that right-wing populists will have more success in Europe again, especially if high energy prices continue to be an issue... even if right-wing populists had a bad year in Europe so far, but I will follow the French election, because it seems that Macron isn't as secure as he would want to be (of course this is what's expected for French Presidents, so yeah...)
American elections are fraudulent and US polls are a joke. It's not your fault Evan, you can only do so much with bad data and a corrupt banana republic system. For whatever flaws the Westminster countries have, at least their elections are run properly. I'm from the States and my advice is to stick to Canada-watching. Chances are there's a lot of us who are going to want to flee there once Trump gets in again, and we'll need your counseling again on the fate of Trudeau.
I have to wonder if this is just kind of a pause in the GFR, though. Here's why I say this: Right now, the COVID-19 pandemic *is* the name of the game. All the fallout from it - school-attendance issues, closed daycares, inconsistent service delivery, mask mandates that are more tightly followed and enforced in areas with *high* vax rates - is probably what is driving voters' behaviors. People are still in a defensive crouch and trying to find a way out, and Dem politicians aren't really providing guidance, unfortunately. See my related Twitter feed here:
https://twitter.com/jeffmcnamee/status/1453766542097743875?s=20
Personally, I could feel a lot of the air get let out of the left-wing balloon when the CDC changed its masking guidance on what was rather flimsy data...and a bunch of Dem-run states followed suit by reinstating mask mandates. I live in Oregon. While there's not much risk of Oregon going red anytime soon, I know plenty of people in my area (about D+25) that are kinda pissed.
Hell, we even have an *outdoor* mandate for venues! That's *more* restrictive than last year...and we were at like 65% of eligible vaxxed at the time. Stupid. Anyway, *I* was pissed that it happened...and there's no way in HELL I'm voting for the Oregon GOP anytime soon...but I can see 10% of my city doing so. They're not THAT serious about the Dems.
Thing is...I don't sense that this frustration or anger is very deep. It's transitory, situational. Give people a path out of this and I'm pretty sure the summer of 2022 looks like what the summer of 2021 was supposed to be. Focus on ending the effects of COVID-19 and getting us to an endemic state and I think the Dems will be fine, mostly because people leave their defensive crouches and actually get to experience the true good Dems are doing right now. Maybe they don't hold Congress but I don't think it'll be a disaster.
In short, November 2022 is a long, long ways away.
I think that the results today are somewhat similar to the Nova Scotia election in August... since both had the challenger gaining ground in the last few polls, even though the incumbent was heavily favoured before...
Anyway, I am not too familiar with Virginia politics, but I guess it's partly a "thermostatic" effect, and also a general backlash towards many people see (rightly or not) as the excesses of the left-wing.
I am not sure how much to interpolate from the US elections to other countries one's, but I guess it makes me more bullish on the conservatives in Canada, and also possibly making it more likely that right-wing populists will have more success in Europe again, especially if high energy prices continue to be an issue... even if right-wing populists had a bad year in Europe so far, but I will follow the French election, because it seems that Macron isn't as secure as he would want to be (of course this is what's expected for French Presidents, so yeah...)
..
American elections are fraudulent and US polls are a joke. It's not your fault Evan, you can only do so much with bad data and a corrupt banana republic system. For whatever flaws the Westminster countries have, at least their elections are run properly. I'm from the States and my advice is to stick to Canada-watching. Chances are there's a lot of us who are going to want to flee there once Trump gets in again, and we'll need your counseling again on the fate of Trudeau.