You couldn’t pick two people who deserve this outcome more than PP and Jenni Byrne.
When the CPC leadership race was underway I was far more interested in Charest as a leader. I know he has major baggage. But he was sensible, moderate and could plausibly claim to be an elder statesman.
PP was just an immature response to Trudeau. Now the election has shifted on its axis due to Trump. And now the choice of PP looks untenable. He’s had two years to cement his image in the public eye. If people don’t like him, I fail to see what will change in the next two months.
People don't like him but what's more important is that he has not won their respect. It is still much easier to perceive him simply as an attack dog than as a potential Prime Minister. Furthermore, he continues to kowtow to the more extreme right, rather than trying to appeal to all Canadians.
Frankly, I would never have voted for the Conservatives regardless of their leader, but the images of him glad handing with the "Freedom Convoy" in Ottawa solidified why he will never be my PM.
I agree with you but shocked at how many people couldn’t remember he was leader of the PC party after Kim Campbell and focused on his leadership and Premiership of the Quebec Liberal Party. After Monday night, they’ll wish he was leader when they see their results from PQ.
I feel the "Canada is broken"/Canada feels broken " message isn't going to continue to land the way it might have prior Trump's threats either. Canadians don't seem to want to hear that negativity about themselves these days. They want pride and unity and the strength of patriotic actions, even if those actions are only checking labels before you buy. And they certainly don't want to hear the"only i can fix it" message.
The "Canada is broken" message reminds voters that Trump is essentially agreeing when he says "Canada isn't a real state - you should be annexed by the US"
PP will never get a fair shake from the Canadian legacy media and he only has a few weeks to get his message out. I suggest he change direction and reach out to the millions of people that now get their news from podcasts such as Joe Rogan. We also have people in Canada such as Jordan Peterson and Gad Saad that have millions of followers. Wake up folks, legacy media is winning this race.
Gerry, you make a great point. I thought O'Toole was a fine just right of centre CPC and the extreme right types didn't accept a fine human being as leader. Pierre is not the leader that will bring a decisive win.
Poilievre said it himself: No matter who wins the leadership of the Liberals, I will be running against Justin Trudeau. His obsession with Justin is becoming deranged. He should get help.
Just think how much time and $$ PP and the Cons have invested in “Axe the Tax”! It resonated and they were going to cruise to victory on it with Trudeau as the PM. They were so confident perhaps that they did not consider this scenario—an outsider replacing Trudeau who axes the tax before the election!
I wish Frank Graves posted on SubStack—since I left X I have not seen his take on the numbers but I see EKOS has consistently had the Liberals higher and the NDP down by more than the poll averages.
In any event I do believe in the Liberal lead. In my house I am the political junkie but my wife is very enthusiastic about voting Liberal in the coming election. I think the Liberals will have an enthusiasm advantage during the campaign and election and it could be that is what EKOS/Graves is picking up.
I’d love Mark Carney to run in my riding so I could vote directly for him. The local Cons voted out our Liberal MP and voted CPC ever since. I’m worried abt “candidate quality”
There are three things that Poilievre should be doing, but is utterly incapable to do so.
1) Show a bit of grace. Thank Trudeau for his service to the country, welcome Mark Carney as his opponent. Say a few nice things, while making the point that he proposing a different approach.
2) Run against Trump and Trump only. Poilievre tried to do this, but almost immediately turned it into how the Liberals have failed. Canadians are looking for a rallying cry, not partisan diatribe. Of course if Poilievre all of sudden manages to attack Trump, he loses at least a third of his base. Call it the FAFO part of getting close to the convoy types.
3) Articulate a number of policies that you are in favour of (as opposed to against). Poilievre and Byrne will never be able to do this, except when they come up with crazy snitch lines.
A one dimensional candidate, running a one dimensional campaign. It almost worked.
I noticed in his speech after Carney was sworn in, that he never once said one word of congratulations or acknowledgment of the accomplishment of becoming our newest PM. I am tired of the divisive politics. Maybe we as a country are tired of it. I want my political parties to hash things out in parliament and come together when needed. I want them to be able to say thank you or to compliment an achievement of the other parties. To put aside the rhetoric for the common good. PP can’t do this.
Agreed. Poilievre never congratulated PM Càrney. And he also never congratulated Doug Ford on winning his 3rd re-election.
Poilievre asked Ford to help him. Ford said No , I’m too busy. Then Ford had Chystia Freeland over to his place for coffee ( as they have been good friends since Covid) . Ford invited her to his swearing in ceremony. She attended But, Poilievre called and congratulated Trump right away on his win. Something going on in Ontario, and it’s not good for PP.
His wife likes him. Surely that's good enough reason to elect him as our PM...I wrote sarcastically.
We have over 41 million Canadians. Surely the CPC could have found someone who is competent, charismatic, and conservative. Couldn't they? They keep choosing leaders that appeal to the more extreme right and that works in Alberta or Saskatchewan, but it just doesn't appeal to the rest of the country. As Eastern born Canadian who lives in Alberta, I believe that the West will vote CPC even if the leader were more Center-Right. (I think they would vote for a monkey as long as it was a CPC candidate.) However, it seems Reform Party influence is still extremely powerful when it comes to selecting a CPC leader.
The latest add I've encountered I thought was a parody of the "I am Canadian" videos. I didn't see the start, I only heard it, and I was thinking "what the hell?!?". Then I realized it was Poilievre at the end. He's gone from "Canada is broken" to some sort of jingoistic, "we'll build utopia" thing.
PP spews nothing but bullshit. NOTHING BUT BULLSHIT. He will sell Canada out in a heartbeat. He’s a liar! Utopia for him is making money off our misery. He’s just like trump!!
As an immigrant from the USA, living in Canada for 35 years, I can honestly say Canada works For the People…which the USA has written in the Constitution, but no longer applies. There’s something special about a country which makes it possible to promote healthy and well educated citizens. I am 100% Canadian for 15 years having renounced my US citizenship with absolutely no regrets. I do not mind my tax dollars supporting that intrinsic right. Elbows UP 🇨🇦‼️
Their whole message has been an anti-Trudeau personal attack and one of hate and now trying to try Trudeau and Carney together with the same method goes to show they have nothing to offer except partisan division... They never had a "better policy" message.... His followers are still going on about Trudeau.... Don't they know it is not wise to speak ill of the dead...
The thing with taking a victory lap over the carbon tax is that, from what I've seen, Carney has only ever said it was too divisive—he hasn't said it was ill-conceived or ineffective. I mean the CPC could certainly take a victory lap over turning it into a divisive issue I suppose…
One of the many consequences of the precious truth (somehow) no longer mattering is Evan STILL having to even CONTEMPLATE the Convoy Party of Canada as a serious contender in winning governance of this country instead of facing the real possibility of losing party status like it did after Mulroney. That was before fucking "social" media of course, when we could all basically just live our lives without listening to the "news" every morning with bated breath.
As climate change ramps up to show who's really in charge here, and it sure as hell is NONE of the seeming legion of "little boys who have grown into smaller men" currently strutting about, the worst a proud example of the saying, "there's no fool like an old fool."
But the truth remains, as usual, and in the case of the carbon tax, because it's a market-driven incentive, it's actually conservative in origin. That used to be their thing back in the day, as did being "progressive" because that had a genuine Canadian "feel" to it. The fact that it still does is anathema to this current bunch of "cons," which is a new, nasty name in keeping with who they have elected to BE.
As soon as I pick up that someone is STILL one of them, I mute them. They're simply the worst among us, hands down.
Fuck them all and the trojan horse they rode in on. They're now beyond rehabilitation.
What I'm referring to is the game/sports context that excessively informs a lot of men's political commentary. Although the whole "may the best team win" approach admittedly lightens up the seriously grim prospect of the ever-more-horrible conservatives actually gaining power over us all (a prospect that has never felt more threatening), and maybe stokes more tolerance as in "you win some, you lose some," sticking to that approach under the circumstances just comes off as more tone deaf, annoying "bothsidesism."
And admiration is often expressed for outstanding "players" in this game, their "strategy" or political "skills," always completely independent of the serious consequences on people's lives or our endangered environment, our precious and the only one we have.
It's not only trivializing though. It also alienates a growing group of people who really don't care for games or sports, which reduces voter turnout or participation generally.
Although voter alienation is actually a known tactic of bad-faith conservatives, along with outright voter suppression, and like all their inherently deceptive tactics, the internet has really ramped it up the last few years.
So counterintuitively, blatant assholery is now being perceived by a lot of guys/gamers as "elbows up."
Bring on the smart, kind of quiet but highly competent economist who prefers to just work to improve quality of life for a lot of people while rising beyond the utter fray that politics has become.
A couple of things about the “Jenni Byrne’s last campaign” comment:
1. Weren’t her most recent campaigns Ford 2018 and Ford 2022? Those went well for her, with 2018 showing that she could overcome some adversity (admittedly against an NDP campaign likely surprised to find itself rising).
2. Even if she continues to flail, Kory and Nick are *right there* if a well-funded CPC decides that maybe Jenni is better off as the number 2 or 3, in charge of GOTV like she was in 2011.
Like you, I think that Carney is trending upwards, I’ve been told that Quebec is quite happy with the new PM and doesn’t see PP as an acceptable alternative, and both of those factors make me happy. I’m just scared that it’s a little early for victory laps, but maybe just the right time for exhortations of “Let’s keep going!”.
Also, does it sound to anyone else that Doug Ford’s quiet campaign for the CPC leadership is underway?
The knives are already out for PP, just as they were for Scheer and O’toole. Of the three guys Harper has slotted into the Con party, PP is the least qualified/able.
But Ford? Yeah he wants it but I don’t think he is “Harper approved”. Plus he can barely speak English, how would he ever convince Quebec voters lol!
😂 I follow news in English/French & some Quebeckers seem impressed with Doug’s Captain Canada act when he threatened to cut off electricity but getting elected here would be an uphill battle with zero French
I don't know whether Ford is gunning for the CPC leadership - I would guess not. But he sure has made an effort to promote Carney while claiming he’s staying on the sidelines. Says a lot to me about who he thinks he can work with and who he thinks is best for Ontario.
A thoughtful column! Not being an X or Instagram user, I haven't seen much in the media by PP. To keep the same platform would be an irrelevant position. The CPC needs to rebuild the platform that is more current and promote it effectively on all media venues. Moving past a "broken" Canada is important, and a much more positive message is needed now from the CPC for serious Canadians.
If you are a large industrial emitter of carbon, the carbon tax is still very much a thing. This is what it was always about, and this is what rankles the Cons. I think it was a brilliant move by Carney!
I have seen several social media posts from conservatives with photos of Carney next to or behind Ghislaine Maxwell, so I guess the cons are now at the Epstein phase of smearing their political opponents…while that phase is one of desperation, it probably works with the base.
You couldn’t pick two people who deserve this outcome more than PP and Jenni Byrne.
When the CPC leadership race was underway I was far more interested in Charest as a leader. I know he has major baggage. But he was sensible, moderate and could plausibly claim to be an elder statesman.
PP was just an immature response to Trudeau. Now the election has shifted on its axis due to Trump. And now the choice of PP looks untenable. He’s had two years to cement his image in the public eye. If people don’t like him, I fail to see what will change in the next two months.
People don't like him but what's more important is that he has not won their respect. It is still much easier to perceive him simply as an attack dog than as a potential Prime Minister. Furthermore, he continues to kowtow to the more extreme right, rather than trying to appeal to all Canadians.
Frankly, I would never have voted for the Conservatives regardless of their leader, but the images of him glad handing with the "Freedom Convoy" in Ottawa solidified why he will never be my PM.
Ottawa?
“Had baggage” was a bit of an understatement.
Mr. Charest was not capable of leading the Conservative Party or getting elected.
I agree with you but shocked at how many people couldn’t remember he was leader of the PC party after Kim Campbell and focused on his leadership and Premiership of the Quebec Liberal Party. After Monday night, they’ll wish he was leader when they see their results from PQ.
I feel the "Canada is broken"/Canada feels broken " message isn't going to continue to land the way it might have prior Trump's threats either. Canadians don't seem to want to hear that negativity about themselves these days. They want pride and unity and the strength of patriotic actions, even if those actions are only checking labels before you buy. And they certainly don't want to hear the"only i can fix it" message.
The "Canada is broken" message reminds voters that Trump is essentially agreeing when he says "Canada isn't a real state - you should be annexed by the US"
That doesnt help the Conservatives at all.
PP will never get a fair shake from the Canadian legacy media and he only has a few weeks to get his message out. I suggest he change direction and reach out to the millions of people that now get their news from podcasts such as Joe Rogan. We also have people in Canada such as Jordan Peterson and Gad Saad that have millions of followers. Wake up folks, legacy media is winning this race.
Poilievre is a selfish jerk and all the spin in the world will not change that fact. The CPC replaced O'Toole, time to pay the political price!
Gerry, you make a great point. I thought O'Toole was a fine just right of centre CPC and the extreme right types didn't accept a fine human being as leader. Pierre is not the leader that will bring a decisive win.
ANYONE BUT POILIEVRE! He’s a trump pussy.
Poilievre said it himself: No matter who wins the leadership of the Liberals, I will be running against Justin Trudeau. His obsession with Justin is becoming deranged. He should get help.
“TDS” lol…
Just think how much time and $$ PP and the Cons have invested in “Axe the Tax”! It resonated and they were going to cruise to victory on it with Trudeau as the PM. They were so confident perhaps that they did not consider this scenario—an outsider replacing Trudeau who axes the tax before the election!
I wish Frank Graves posted on SubStack—since I left X I have not seen his take on the numbers but I see EKOS has consistently had the Liberals higher and the NDP down by more than the poll averages.
In any event I do believe in the Liberal lead. In my house I am the political junkie but my wife is very enthusiastic about voting Liberal in the coming election. I think the Liberals will have an enthusiasm advantage during the campaign and election and it could be that is what EKOS/Graves is picking up.
All my fam is voting Lib
Thank you. It’s the only hope we have as a country.
We are as well!🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦
I’d love Mark Carney to run in my riding so I could vote directly for him. The local Cons voted out our Liberal MP and voted CPC ever since. I’m worried abt “candidate quality”
I guess Trudeau is Poilievre's Hillary Clinton. I'm surprised PP hasn't started chanting "Lock him up!"
😂
Could not possibly love this more ❤️🇨🇦
Cautiously optimistic of our chances. Hoping Cheeto MAGA keeps helping the Liberal Party 😂
As well as Alex Jones 🤢, Rogan & Musk!
But above all, I TRUST Carney will do an amazing job ❤️🇨🇦
💯 trust Carney for Canada 🇨🇦
Yes 💯 % - hoping and optimistic!
There are three things that Poilievre should be doing, but is utterly incapable to do so.
1) Show a bit of grace. Thank Trudeau for his service to the country, welcome Mark Carney as his opponent. Say a few nice things, while making the point that he proposing a different approach.
2) Run against Trump and Trump only. Poilievre tried to do this, but almost immediately turned it into how the Liberals have failed. Canadians are looking for a rallying cry, not partisan diatribe. Of course if Poilievre all of sudden manages to attack Trump, he loses at least a third of his base. Call it the FAFO part of getting close to the convoy types.
3) Articulate a number of policies that you are in favour of (as opposed to against). Poilievre and Byrne will never be able to do this, except when they come up with crazy snitch lines.
A one dimensional candidate, running a one dimensional campaign. It almost worked.
I noticed in his speech after Carney was sworn in, that he never once said one word of congratulations or acknowledgment of the accomplishment of becoming our newest PM. I am tired of the divisive politics. Maybe we as a country are tired of it. I want my political parties to hash things out in parliament and come together when needed. I want them to be able to say thank you or to compliment an achievement of the other parties. To put aside the rhetoric for the common good. PP can’t do this.
Agreed. Poilievre never congratulated PM Càrney. And he also never congratulated Doug Ford on winning his 3rd re-election.
Poilievre asked Ford to help him. Ford said No , I’m too busy. Then Ford had Chystia Freeland over to his place for coffee ( as they have been good friends since Covid) . Ford invited her to his swearing in ceremony. She attended But, Poilievre called and congratulated Trump right away on his win. Something going on in Ontario, and it’s not good for PP.
We are. Poilievre’s greatest shortcoming is he can’t hear outside his rabid bubble. Imagine that governing our great country? I shudder to think
He’s a right wing extremist bag of shit. We deserve sooo much better than Poilievre.
His supporters would hate him for it - he is fully committed to the bit
The PCP has no platform apart from Liberal-bashing.
I have yet to hear a reason why we should vote for PP. I have seen their ads. It’s just desperate and negative.
His wife likes him. Surely that's good enough reason to elect him as our PM...I wrote sarcastically.
We have over 41 million Canadians. Surely the CPC could have found someone who is competent, charismatic, and conservative. Couldn't they? They keep choosing leaders that appeal to the more extreme right and that works in Alberta or Saskatchewan, but it just doesn't appeal to the rest of the country. As Eastern born Canadian who lives in Alberta, I believe that the West will vote CPC even if the leader were more Center-Right. (I think they would vote for a monkey as long as it was a CPC candidate.) However, it seems Reform Party influence is still extremely powerful when it comes to selecting a CPC leader.
He’s incorrect in his assessment of Canada, he reflects ZERO Canadian values
He’s 100% phoney as a 3 dollar bill. NEVER POILIEVRE!
The latest add I've encountered I thought was a parody of the "I am Canadian" videos. I didn't see the start, I only heard it, and I was thinking "what the hell?!?". Then I realized it was Poilievre at the end. He's gone from "Canada is broken" to some sort of jingoistic, "we'll build utopia" thing.
Fascist utopia
PP spews nothing but bullshit. NOTHING BUT BULLSHIT. He will sell Canada out in a heartbeat. He’s a liar! Utopia for him is making money off our misery. He’s just like trump!!
PP = ZERO CANADIAN VALUES
As an immigrant from the USA, living in Canada for 35 years, I can honestly say Canada works For the People…which the USA has written in the Constitution, but no longer applies. There’s something special about a country which makes it possible to promote healthy and well educated citizens. I am 100% Canadian for 15 years having renounced my US citizenship with absolutely no regrets. I do not mind my tax dollars supporting that intrinsic right. Elbows UP 🇨🇦‼️
Their whole message has been an anti-Trudeau personal attack and one of hate and now trying to try Trudeau and Carney together with the same method goes to show they have nothing to offer except partisan division... They never had a "better policy" message.... His followers are still going on about Trudeau.... Don't they know it is not wise to speak ill of the dead...
Compared to Pollievre, Carneys like the second coming of Christ.
Exactly. He's thoughtful, articulate, informed, and mature. He projects like a leader, not a schoolyard bully.
The thing with taking a victory lap over the carbon tax is that, from what I've seen, Carney has only ever said it was too divisive—he hasn't said it was ill-conceived or ineffective. I mean the CPC could certainly take a victory lap over turning it into a divisive issue I suppose…
No more bothsidesism please.
One of the many consequences of the precious truth (somehow) no longer mattering is Evan STILL having to even CONTEMPLATE the Convoy Party of Canada as a serious contender in winning governance of this country instead of facing the real possibility of losing party status like it did after Mulroney. That was before fucking "social" media of course, when we could all basically just live our lives without listening to the "news" every morning with bated breath.
As climate change ramps up to show who's really in charge here, and it sure as hell is NONE of the seeming legion of "little boys who have grown into smaller men" currently strutting about, the worst a proud example of the saying, "there's no fool like an old fool."
But the truth remains, as usual, and in the case of the carbon tax, because it's a market-driven incentive, it's actually conservative in origin. That used to be their thing back in the day, as did being "progressive" because that had a genuine Canadian "feel" to it. The fact that it still does is anathema to this current bunch of "cons," which is a new, nasty name in keeping with who they have elected to BE.
As soon as I pick up that someone is STILL one of them, I mute them. They're simply the worst among us, hands down.
Fuck them all and the trojan horse they rode in on. They're now beyond rehabilitation.
Not exactly sure who you're accusing of bothsideism, I'm pretty sure that you, Evan, and I are all in agreement on the CPC.
We are indeed.
What I'm referring to is the game/sports context that excessively informs a lot of men's political commentary. Although the whole "may the best team win" approach admittedly lightens up the seriously grim prospect of the ever-more-horrible conservatives actually gaining power over us all (a prospect that has never felt more threatening), and maybe stokes more tolerance as in "you win some, you lose some," sticking to that approach under the circumstances just comes off as more tone deaf, annoying "bothsidesism."
And admiration is often expressed for outstanding "players" in this game, their "strategy" or political "skills," always completely independent of the serious consequences on people's lives or our endangered environment, our precious and the only one we have.
It's not only trivializing though. It also alienates a growing group of people who really don't care for games or sports, which reduces voter turnout or participation generally.
Although voter alienation is actually a known tactic of bad-faith conservatives, along with outright voter suppression, and like all their inherently deceptive tactics, the internet has really ramped it up the last few years.
So counterintuitively, blatant assholery is now being perceived by a lot of guys/gamers as "elbows up."
Bring on the smart, kind of quiet but highly competent economist who prefers to just work to improve quality of life for a lot of people while rising beyond the utter fray that politics has become.
A couple of things about the “Jenni Byrne’s last campaign” comment:
1. Weren’t her most recent campaigns Ford 2018 and Ford 2022? Those went well for her, with 2018 showing that she could overcome some adversity (admittedly against an NDP campaign likely surprised to find itself rising).
2. Even if she continues to flail, Kory and Nick are *right there* if a well-funded CPC decides that maybe Jenni is better off as the number 2 or 3, in charge of GOTV like she was in 2011.
Like you, I think that Carney is trending upwards, I’ve been told that Quebec is quite happy with the new PM and doesn’t see PP as an acceptable alternative, and both of those factors make me happy. I’m just scared that it’s a little early for victory laps, but maybe just the right time for exhortations of “Let’s keep going!”.
Also, does it sound to anyone else that Doug Ford’s quiet campaign for the CPC leadership is underway?
The knives are already out for PP, just as they were for Scheer and O’toole. Of the three guys Harper has slotted into the Con party, PP is the least qualified/able.
But Ford? Yeah he wants it but I don’t think he is “Harper approved”. Plus he can barely speak English, how would he ever convince Quebec voters lol!
😂 I follow news in English/French & some Quebeckers seem impressed with Doug’s Captain Canada act when he threatened to cut off electricity but getting elected here would be an uphill battle with zero French
I don't know whether Ford is gunning for the CPC leadership - I would guess not. But he sure has made an effort to promote Carney while claiming he’s staying on the sidelines. Says a lot to me about who he thinks he can work with and who he thinks is best for Ontario.
A thoughtful column! Not being an X or Instagram user, I haven't seen much in the media by PP. To keep the same platform would be an irrelevant position. The CPC needs to rebuild the platform that is more current and promote it effectively on all media venues. Moving past a "broken" Canada is important, and a much more positive message is needed now from the CPC for serious Canadians.
If you are a large industrial emitter of carbon, the carbon tax is still very much a thing. This is what it was always about, and this is what rankles the Cons. I think it was a brilliant move by Carney!
https://x.com/PierrePoilievre/status/1901049566897525013
Seriously. He's got nothing left. " They're going to bring it back!!!"
I have seen several social media posts from conservatives with photos of Carney next to or behind Ghislaine Maxwell, so I guess the cons are now at the Epstein phase of smearing their political opponents…while that phase is one of desperation, it probably works with the base.
I believe those AI generated posts were produced by the Chinese!