Where is your seat model published? Or is it only visible to paying subscribers? That’s fair, if so. Totally get it. But if it’s visible to non-paying, I’d like to check it out.
The conservatives can be saved by a very unexpected NPD surges that would split progressive votes in key ridings and allow conservative canadidates to be elected. The split of the progressive votes was the key factor of the 2011 harder majority. If there isn’t such split, it is very difficult for the CPC to win.
The real danger to Canada is the vicious split between generations in voting intention and what folks care about. Canada will be a very different place once the forever hippy boomers move along and take their hunger for entitlements to the grave.
Evan, what would happen in your model if you would (nationwide) take 5% from the Linberals and “give” this to the NDP and the Bloc in Quebec? I suspect that this would be a more dangerous scenario for the Liberals.
Not quite. Keep Conservatives at the current level, but artificially reduce the Liberals by 5% and allocate this 5% to the NDP in the rest of Canada and to the Bloc in Quebec.
The rationale is that if the Liberals are going to lose support, they would likely lose it to the NDP or the Bloc, and not the Conservatives.
10 percent is a huge margin for safety. Still I will be working hard to get every gd vote out for the Liberals in my riding!
Where is your seat model published? Or is it only visible to paying subscribers? That’s fair, if so. Totally get it. But if it’s visible to non-paying, I’d like to check it out.
The conservatives can be saved by a very unexpected NPD surges that would split progressive votes in key ridings and allow conservative canadidates to be elected. The split of the progressive votes was the key factor of the 2011 harder majority. If there isn’t such split, it is very difficult for the CPC to win.
I think NDP voters are all too aware of that, and will vote accordingly due to EHP (Everbody Hates Polievre)
Some of the boomers remember what the Harper govt was like, and have no taste for a repeat.
The real danger to Canada is the vicious split between generations in voting intention and what folks care about. Canada will be a very different place once the forever hippy boomers move along and take their hunger for entitlements to the grave.
Evan, what would happen in your model if you would (nationwide) take 5% from the Linberals and “give” this to the NDP and the Bloc in Quebec? I suspect that this would be a more dangerous scenario for the Liberals.
In addition to the Conservatives? The damage would be smaller, they’d lose less than a dozen seats
Not quite. Keep Conservatives at the current level, but artificially reduce the Liberals by 5% and allocate this 5% to the NDP in the rest of Canada and to the Bloc in Quebec.
The rationale is that if the Liberals are going to lose support, they would likely lose it to the NDP or the Bloc, and not the Conservatives.
In that case they’d win 185
The Cons wouldn’t gain nearly as many and the NDP wouldn’t gain much at all
Wow, that is more robust than I would have expected. Thanks!