On Abacus And Mainstreet
I am actually glad that the two latest polls are complete doom and gloom for the Liberals. It would have been so easy to write off the two bad polls earlier in July as outliers and keep the current course. Ideally there are another few polls with similar outcomes. Hopefully this will give the Liberal government the message that indeed something has permanently changed.
Canadians in 2023 have never had it better. This is literally the best time to be a Canadian. Economic growth in the last 10 years is 2nd in the G7 (just after the US). Unemployment is at record lows. Life expectancy is 2nd highest in the G7 (after Japan). Canadians are the most educated in the world. Poverty in Canada is at all times low. Etc. etc. etc. The data shows that Canada is doing extremely well both in an absolute and comparative manner.
Yet, despite all this success, there is this doom and gloom feeling that is very effectively promoted by Poilievre. It is not based on any hard data (other than cherry picked data) and somehow this is more powerful than actual reality. And this is what is permanently changed. It is no longer good enough to deliver robust economic growth, you need to sell it the voters. No longer you can count on the media to report the truth or facts, you need to spend the time and present it to the voters on a continuous basis.
This is hard work, but if you want to have another term, there is no alternative. And I realize it is 100x harder for Trudeau than it is for Poilievre. It is so much easier to snipe from the sidelines and lie frequently if you are not in government.
So, what to do? The first thing is start talking about the issues people care about. Present how Canada is doing compared to other countries. Inform, explain, be humble, but more importantly show that you are engaged on topics like cost of living, housing, etc.
Secondly, call out the provinces for their lack of action on several files. For example, present (and shame) on a quarterly basis things like:
Number of building permits
Percentage of people without a family doctor
Wait list for medical procedures
Average time for criminal case to get to trial
Rate provincial regulations and give marks for rental protection. And do all this with the offer of additional help from the federal government, while at the same time making clear who is responsible for what.
And finally, prepare this shift carefully and make sure that the entire team knows the game plan. However, don’t spend the next 12 months preparing, come October this year start engaging on these issues.
We shall see what the polls are by March April of next year. If they are still this bad with no improvement then he has to go.
Oh, and a more apt music-cum-political reference would be “1979” by the Smashing Pumpkins
You sure you weren’t tapping my phone during my reading of the Riot Act during the Cabinet retreat??? Well said. 5 stars, Uber.
I think your confidence in Trudeau winning a fourth term was well-founded, given 2019 and 2021 and the Liberals' ability to get by - suppressing the NDP vote enough while compensating for their loss in the popular vote with tremendous vote efficiency. Poilievre is clearly on a different level than Scheer and O'Toole, but it remains to be seen if the new support will stand up at election time - at one time, Ed Broadbent had a good chance at becoming Prime Minister based on the polls.
The problem is housing is now their biggest issue and it’s takes a while to right the ship. Immigration, specifically intl students has gotten out of hand pushing demand up. Housing starts are down and interest rates will be high for a while (average time from peak to when cuts start is 9 months). Even if they did every right move it will likely get worse before it gets better. Two years is not a lot of time for an issue like this.
No one has mentioned mortgages. I would be the first one to blame people for saddling themselves with high mortgages, when everyone was warning them they they would be in trouble if interest rates went up. The fact is though that to many people did, and they are blaming Trudeau.
Only hope.... JT out....C Freeland in
“…mitigation, either by sticking with JT when he has no chance of winning again to save the furniture or by tossing him to try and save the polls”
I think this is explicitly the wrong question, and if the Liberals focus on it they’ll walk into an electoral meat grinder regardless of which way they jump.
Cost of living, and all the contributing factors, are concern number one right now, and the gap between it and any potential second issue is so large it’s not worth even looking beyond.
The Liberals/Trudeau have not had any meaningful engagement on this issue. If they continue to fail to address it, it doesn’t matter if they replace Trudeau or not. As long as they’re ignoring the only issue voters care about whoever leads the party will lead them into defeat.
Conversely, if they manage to engage with the issue and present policies that gain real traction the voters will return. And it won’t matter if it’s Trudeau or someone else leading them.
Although I could buy an argument that due to party infighting and factionalism turfing Trudeau is a functional prerequisite to any drastic policy changes.
.. at least you’re listening to the Strokes.. the Boss’ll love ya for that..
You know my view re Polls based on fewer people than were on my subway train today..
I need to examine the entrails of the Polls.. but seeing as it’ll be 1,000 to 1,250
Secret Persons Not Authorized To Be Leakers.. just Un-Named ‘Dependable Poll Subjects
I can’t wait to discover whatever I can discover from a ‘sanitized backtrail’
Trying to tell me that Daily Endless Political ‘Popularity’ or ‘Merit’ Polls
DO NOT INFLUENCE PERCEPTIONS.. which are also Assailed Daily
& by more Propaganda Teams of ThinkWanks + MainsStreamMedia
among many many other Incremental Psy Ops.. all in Harmony
& I say Don’t Try Snowing The Snow Man.. while Pissing On My Leg.. eh 🦎🏴☠️
ps .. I Never Shoot The Messenge - Trust Me .. .. 🏴☠️☠️