12 Comments

The interesting thing is that the Ontario NDP has done the same thing in shutting down internal debate over the party's future - more successfully, actually, since there was never a leadership race to begin with. The ONDP was able to salvage 31 seats, and that's still 4 times as many as the OLP, so it was easier to paper over the disaster and continue like business as usual despite having lost 40% of its raw vote from 2018. I find both the OLP and ONDP to be exceedingly arrogant in that they both think the other is incapable of galvanizing opposition to Ford, and as a result, they will be able to assume that mantle as the main anti-Ford choice by default. The problem with both parties executing this strategy in 2022 is that neither party assumed that mantle in the public's eye, and they both got slaughtered.

Expand full comment

You missed the single biggest data point for your own argument. The provincial arms of the Liberal party have already collapsed everywhere except Ontario.

And if Ontario also collapses, I wonder how long the party remains viable Federally? It’s a lot easier to convince people they are NDP voters when they are already voting NDP provincially. And a lot harder to maintain a volunteer and donor base when that base splits their time supporting someone else provincially.

The NDP might be floundering and unserious Federally, but provincially they are far more vital and growing than the Liberals. Maybe their path to eclipsing the Liberals federally runs through simply outlasting them?

Expand full comment

You exaggerate the Liberal collapse provincially somewhat. They are leading or opposition in 4 provinces and 1 territory, PC in 5/1 (not counting UCP, Sask, or BCU), and NDP in 5/0. None of the losses from Lib to NDP are recent except Ontario and they just gained back PEI from Green.

Expand full comment
Jul 19, 2023·edited Jul 19, 2023

I disagree with you on a fundamental functional level.

It’s not just that they aren’t currently competitive. In BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba the Liberal party no longer exists as functional organizations. Just think about that. The Liberal party does not exist as an organization west of Ontario.

The only places they are still competitive in the maritimes. But so what? By any measure of national influence the maritimes and territories are an afterthought.

They’re now getting pushed into irrelevancy in Ontario, the largest and most influential province in the country, but since they managed to squeeze out one more seat than the Greens in PEI you’re going to score that as a tie?

No, the Liberal collapse across the country is nothing less than an existential threat to the party. And any attempt to spin that is willful blindness.

Expand full comment

I did say (and mean) “somewhat”. I don’t disagree that there is an issue for the Liberals (and I’m not a Liberal supporter federally or provincially so I don’t think I’m “willfully blind). There are also several provinces where the NDP does not functionally exist by your measure. I think you are suffering somewhat from western bias is all. You don’t see Liberals as alive because they aren’t alive where you are. But they are elsewhere, and they are federally. Even where they aren’t alive provincially they continue to be competitive federally. Even in Alberta the Liberals are second party in many seats.

Expand full comment

Sorry, forgot QC opposition is Liberal, so 5/1

Expand full comment

There are no "Provincial arms" of the Liberal Party of Canada. Provincial Liberal parties are entirely separate entities. The Ontario Liberal Party has no organizational, financial or structural connection to the LPC. It's true that most Ontario Liberal members are also members of the LPC but it's not a 100% crossover. This is of course very different from the structure of the NDP. If you are a member of the Ontario New Democratic Party you are also automatically a member of the Federal NDP, and there are direct organizational structural links between the two. Ditto for other provincial New Democratic parties.

Expand full comment

Yes, and technically the UCP in Alberta has no connection to the Federal Conservatives.

Which is entirely beside the point.

The provincial parties are valuable and essential sources of talent and engagement. That a major Federal party is unable ti maintain a policy/principles aligned equivalent in half the country is a massive red flag.

It’s a sign of an inherently unhealthy party. One that is coasting on institutional inertia rather than having any sort of active ideological core.

Expand full comment

Fundamentally the LPC is a pragmatic party - both on the everyday sense and in the actual philosophical sense: "Pragmatism is a philosophical tradition that – very broadly – understands knowing the world as inseparable from agency within it. This general idea has attracted a remarkably rich and at times contrary range of interpretations, including: that all philosophical concepts should be tested via scientific experimentation, that a claim is true if and only if it is useful (relatedly: if a philosophical theory does not contribute directly to social progress then it is not worth much)." - Intriguingly, Cornel West (who's running way to the left of good old Bernie in the USA) is an exemplar of Pragmatism. So indeed on can be a capital P Pragmatist and be a Liberal or a Social Democrat. But as 'ideology' it is one that seeks testing and evidence. Human flourishing and progress: Yes. But not to serve a specific programatic set of policies but by seeking what actually works to achieve that progress. Of course in real life, no party is exempt from error, fuck-ups and self-interest but give me a Pragmatism over Dogmatism anyway of the week.

Expand full comment

I agree that pragmatic good governance is the core Liberal selling point, and I think that actually makes it worse.

It’s one thing when an ideological party like the Greens can’t connect with a region. No one’s expecting them to make a breakthrough in Alberta precisely because they are committed to certain policies.

But when the party of pragmatism can’t develop a message that works in either BC or Alberta? That is a sign of a party with structural issues.

Let’s put it this way. If the Federal NDP do poorly in the next two elections I’d expect them to maintain roughly their current scope. They have a floor of support due to ideological voters and a deep bench of provincial politicians potentially looking to go federal to fill any organizational gaps.

If the Liberals have two poor elections in a row I wouldn’t be surprised if they fully wither away, like many of their provincial counterparts. Their selling point is that party of governance. That’s a hard sell for a party rebuilding without an inherent base or feeder teams.

Expand full comment

far down the road I see inevitable evolution re ‘Political Governance’ in a Country named Canada eh. Currently I see in particular a Major Political ‘Entity’ & Party, the Harper CPC - trying to Factionalize Electoral Process to Gain Electoral & Legislative CONTROL

We just witnessed (even if Partisan MainStreamMedia claims otherwise - by Omission)

a Factional Governmental Coup D’état in Alberta. That’s right !

The ‘Elected Sitting Government of Alberta’ was taken over by an Internal Faction

utilizing the ‘Party Bylaws designed by Jason Kenney usurping him !)

The Conservative Party of Canada is utilizing Evangelical Factions to ‘win ridings’ and at the same time are trying ‘to Buy a Federal Election Campaign Victory’ - IN ADVANCE- via an UNLIMITED BUDGET plus A Majority of MainStreamMedia & Every Single Tool & Tactic of Modern PROPAGANDA.. utilizing Donors, Influencers, Electoral Riding Associations, Pollsters, DataCrawlers, RoboCall Agencies, Volunteers, SocialMedia Grooming blending with MainstreamMedia Grooming .. with a double dooberry cherry topping of Missus & Mr Divisive Disinformation & Misinformation

This is what Nate et al are going to face Provincially.. via Doug Ford et al inc & the police

Be wise to choose Nate.. very wise !

Expand full comment

Dies anyone have a coherent explanation re the Christy Clark ‘version’ of the Liberal Party of British Columbia ? The Government & Premier that employed Ken Boessenkool as her Chief Of Staff ? How about her ‘relationship’ with her Minister ?. was it Stoneman ? The Public Land Rights Sale & Giveaways to he and his Brother’s Development Entities ? Zero Support to Federal Law & Wild Fisheries Legislation, just Salmon farms Uber Alles & Site C bafflement’s.. ‘Point Of No Return’ became ‘The Law’ ? I followed Norm Farrell through all this.. and Alicia Morton re the Salmon Wars ..

Expand full comment